Kevin Irvine's Long Range Weather Forecasts

Contact; David Clarke

Written December 18th 2001, further investigations done in 2004, the page was last edited on 2021/12/22.
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"Long-range weather forecasts" are periodically broadcast on Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) radio in South Australia. I decided to investigate the reliability of these forecasts; my conclusion - they are as good as deciding whether it's going to rain by the toss of a coin.

I was surprised and disappointed to find out that the ABC makes no effort to check whether there is some correlation between the forecasts and the weather. I suspect that many listeners would assume the forecasts do show some similarity to the weather simply because they are broadcast by a (generally) reputable broadcaster.

It must be stressed that what is being discussed here is not the long-term outlooks released by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology based on such things as the Southern Oscillation Index. I have no reason to doubt the scientific basis of Bureau forecasts.

NEW - see 2004 predictions on this page - below.
The forecaster, Kevin Irvine of Ceduna, threatened me with litigation during my correspondence with him. However I believe that the truth should be told and that he cannot sue me for telling the truth.

The table below gives both the forecast weather and the weather that the Bureau and I recorded. I believe that the reader will see that there is very little that the two have in common. Note that one period when the forecaster got it fairly right (June 5-10th), was when he could have listened to the Bureau's forecast (generally for four days ahead). I recorded the forecasts and weather for the period 13th April to 6th July, and the whole of the record is given below.

I suppose the moral is, let the buyer beware (caveat emptor).

Date Forecast Actual weather Comments
  The forecaster generally forecast only the rainy periods, he didn't usually mention the dry periods; hence, where no entry below, take as fine. I have tried to record the days when the rain actually fell, rather than when it was tipped out of the rain gauges. All the observations below have been checked against Australian Meteorological Bureau data, and some notes are from M.B. publications.  
13-Apr-01   Fine  
14-Apr-01 Weak change Fine  
15-Apr-01 Fine Fine  
16-Apr-01 Fine Fine  
17-Apr-01   Fine  
18-Apr-01   Fine  
19-Apr-01 Rain coming Fine  
20-Apr-01 General rain Fine  
21-Apr-01 General rain Fine  
22-Apr-01 General rain Light rains a few places in SA  
23-Apr-01 General rain Fine  
24-Apr-01 Clearing Fine  
25-Apr-01 Clear Fine  
26-Apr-01   Fine  
27-Apr-01   Showers in some areas  
28-Apr-01   Fine  
29-Apr-01   Fine  
30-Apr-01   Fine  
1-May-01   Fine  
2-May-01   Fine  
3-May-01   Scattered showers  
4-May-01   Scattered showers  
5-May-01   Fine The day of the monthly long-range forecast
6-May-01   Fine  
7-May-01   Fine  
8-May-01   Fine  
9-May-01   Rain Whyalla & Victor Harbor, little elsewhere  
10-May-01   Fine  
11-May-01 Showers Fine  
12-May-01 Showers Fine  
13-May-01 Showers Fine  
14-May-01   Showers, some rain  
15-May-01   Rain some places (incl. Adelaide)  
16-May-01   Some rain Maitland, Naracoorte, little elsewhere  
17-May-01   Good rains Adelaide, Vic. Harbor, Clare (4mm at Crystal Brook)  
18-May-01 Rain Rain  
19-May-01 Rain Some showers  
20-May-01 Rain Fine  
21-May-01 Wet Fine  
22-May-01   Fine  
23-May-01   Fine  
24-May-01   Fine  
25-May-01   Fine  
26-May-01   General rains  
27-May-01   General rains  
28-May-01   General rains  
29-May-01   Fine  
30-May-01   Fine  
31-May-01   Fine  
1-Jun-01   A little rain in Adelaide?  
2-Jun-01   Fine The day of the monthly long-range forecast
3-Jun-01   Fine  
4-Jun-01   Fine  
5-Jun-01 Showers General rains throughout the In May the original forecast was for rain 7-9/6 but changed
6-Jun-01 Showers state from about 5th to 10th to 5-9/6 in his forecast on 2/6. Listened to
7-Jun-01 Showers Rain the Bureau forecast?
8-Jun-01 Showers Rain  
9-Jun-01 Showers Rain  
10-Jun-01   Rain  
11-Jun-01   Rain  
12-Jun-01   Rain  
13-Jun-01   Rain  
14-Jun-01   Mainly fine  
15-Jun-01   Fine  
16-Jun-01 Good rains to 21st Fine  
17-Jun-01 Rains Fine  
18-Jun-01 Rains Fine  
19-Jun-01 Rains Fine  
20-Jun-01 Rains A few showers  
21-Jun-01 Rains A few showers  
22-Jun-01   A few showers  
23-Jun-01   Fine  
24-Jun-01   Fine  
25-Jun-01   Fine  
26-Jun-01   Fine  
27-Jun-01   Fine  
28-Jun-01   Fine  
29-Jun-01   Fine  
30-Jun-01   Fine  
1-Jul-01   Fine  
2-Jul-01   Fine  
3-Jul-01   Fine  
4-Jul-01   Rain  
5-Jul-01   Rain  
6-Jul-01   Some showers  


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2004 predictions

In this section I have extracted selected predictions from K. Irvine's forecasts, as published on the ABC Web site. The predictions that I have selected were those that seemed to be most unambiguous and verifiable, and were further in the future than the 10 or so days that are obtainable from the Bureau and on the Internet. (For example, "the showers will return late April" is too vague to be testable.)

I have quoted the predictions as soon as I read them and before the time of the predicted events. I later recorded the actual weather. I have not selectively picked predictions that were either right or wrong.

Prediction broadcast on (date) Date of predicted weather K. Irvine's forecastOutcome
April 3rdSecond week of May "The opening of the season should come in the second week of May just before the Adelaide Cup. Further rain is due in late May and early June." Rain just sufficient to be called opening fell in at least the Clare area in late April. My information is that the Mount Lofty Ranges had opening rains before the end of April.
April 3rdJuly "July will be the best month of the year for rains with falls due in the first and fourth weeks of the month"
April 3rdAugust "August will see average rain"
April 3rdWinter "The winter months are looking good for rain"
Prediction broadcast on (date) Date of predicted weather K. Irvine's forecastOutcome
May 1stSecond and third week of May "There will be rain in the second week of May just before the Adelaide Cup with further rain in the third week of the month, providing an opening to the season." My impression is that opening rains did not fall in most cereal growing areas of the state in May.

Rain recorded at Crystal Brook for May:
Datemmmm
DKCPO
33.0
145.22.8
163.0
188.912.0
234.5
244.0
292.0
312.6
Total27.624.4


DKC: my rain guage
PO: Post office

Note: PO rain guages are not normally read on weekends, and I did not check my rain guage every day.

May 1stJune "Good winter rains will arrive in the first week of June and farmers inland may need this to boost their opening to the season."
May 1stJuly "July will be the best month for rain with falls in the first and fourth weeks."

Compare this with the July forecast given in June (DKC)

May 1stAugust to October "Average rains are forecast through August, September and early October providing an average to good season for farmers."

SA rainfall, May
Rainfall map for May from Bureau of Meteorology

Prediction broadcast on (date) Date of predicted weather K. Irvine's forecastOutcome
June 5thJune "More rain in the middle of June" Rain recorded at Crystal Brook for June:
Datemmmm
DKCPO
10.2
215.014.4
32.52.4
96.45.4
137.7
153.79.6
163.12.0
212017.0
234.5
243.34.4
253.0
281.5
Total67.958.2


DKC: my rain guage
PO: Post office

I would think that most Crystal Brook locals would consider the rain of 2nd June to be the opening rain for the season.
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June 5thJuly "July will be a good month for rain with falls in late June/early July followed by more rain in the middle of July"

Compare this with the July forecast given in May (DKC)

June 5thRemainder of year "Kevin says there won't be any big rains this year and is expecting the predicted showers to provide falls of between 10 and 20 mm each time."

SA rainfall, June
Rainfall map for June from Bureau of Meteorology

Prediction broadcast on (date) Date of predicted weather K. Irvine's forecastOutcome
July 3rdFirst weeks of July Kevin talked about rain over the next few weeks. His prediction was unspecific and could partly have been taken from 7 or 10-day forecasts available on the Internet. Rain recorded at Crystal Brook for July:
Datemmmm
DKCPO
110.4
50.5
60.7
94.0
122.51.4
193.2
237.11.6
2412.0
255.5
265.422.8
270.7
Total35.4


DKC: my rain guage
PO: Post office

Note: PO rain guages are not normally read on weekends, and I did not check my rain guage every day.

July 3rdMid to late July "There'll be further rain in the middle of July and in the fourth week of the month."
July 3rdAugust "Kevin also says to expect rain in the first week of August."
July 3rdSeptember & October "The spring rains will start in early September and continue through to October which will result in an average season for farmers. Some areas that had their crops in earlier should finish with better than average crops."
July 3rdNovember "The spring rains will come to an end in early November..."
July 3rdSummer "December will be a reasonable month for temperatures but look out in January and February because Kevin says it's going to be HOT!"
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From here onward I have recorded rainfall only so that you can compare Mr. Irvine's predictions with the actual rainfall.

SA rainfall, July
Above is the rainfall map for July from Bureau of Meteorology


Rainfall recorded at Crystal Brook in July
DKC: my rain guage
PO: Post office
Datemmmm
DKCPO
11.00.4
50.5
60.7
94.0
122.51.4
193.2
237.11.6
2412.0
255.5
265.422.8
270.7
Total35.433.8
SA rainfall, August
Above is the rainfall map for August from Bureau of Meteorology


Rainfall recorded at Crystal Brook in August
DKC: my rain guage
PO: Post office
Datemmmm
DKCPO
218.08.0
34.08.4
410.610.2
58.35.0
63.74.5
70.2
101.31.0
110.3
137.02.8
141.7
165.0
254.9
264.2
298.5
303.19.0
317.06.8
Total78.664.9
SA rainfall, September
Above is the rainfall map for September from Bureau of Meteorology


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Rainfall recorded at Crystal Brook PO in September
Datemm
61.0
74.4
89.2
1318.6
234.3
294.8
Total42.3
SA rainfall, October
Above is the rainfall map for October from Bureau of Meteorology


Rainfall recorded at Crystal Brook PO in October DKC: my rain guage
PO: Post office
Datemmmm
DKCPO
140.6
273.01.2
Total3.01.8

This month was a disaster for cereal farmers. Mr. Irvine seems not to have foreseen it at all.

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