This page is very speculative, it cannot be anything else.
The numbers of deaths that I give are very broad ranges.
If you don't agree with my figures, let me know.
I am treating possible millions of deaths in a very unemotional way here.
I apologise for that, the death or serious injury of even a single person
can be devastating; but an unemotional approach needs to be used to show the
facts.
Our politicians are using emotion – the fear of terrorist attack –
to blind First World people to the true scale of the dangers that face us.
They would rather look like they are doing
something effective against terrorism while hiding the fact that they are
doing next to nothing to avert the much larger
environmental disasters that face us.
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Anthropogenic means 'caused by Man'
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An important aspect of any disaster is the degree to which it is recoverable.
This is one reason why I believe that anthropogenic
climate change (ACC) is the greatest of all
currently
foreseeable and likely major disasters; much of the damage will not be
recoverable except by natural processes over millions of years.
Unlike other disasters which would happen in hours, days, months or at most a
few years, the worst effects of ACC will probably take a century or more
to devolop.
No doubt this is one of the reasons that ACC doesn't get the attention it
deserves.
If these estimates are anywhere near correct, why do the USA and Australian
governments spend billions of dollars and tens of thousands of lives in
their 'War on Terrorism' while doing very little to reduce their levels of
greenhouse gas production?
The USA and Australia both produce far more than 'their share' of greenhouse
gas emissions.
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Disaster
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Number of human deaths
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Other effects
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Avoidability/Recoverability
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Hurricane/flood
Likelihood; Inevitable; becoming more severe in future due to climate
change
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Up to hundreds of thousands depending on where it happens and its severity
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Wind damage to houses and other buildings, mud slides, flooding, erosion,
loss of fertile top soil.
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Avoidability;
Unavoidable, but First World societies can enforce building codes in hurricane
prone areas so that structures will be able to withstand most hurricanes.
Floods can be reduced by reforestation of catchments and damage can be
reduced by not building in flood plains (a choice that may not be available
to Third World societies).
Recoverability;
Mostly recoverable with time (a decade or so), except for the losses of soil
and erosion damage etc.
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Disaster
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Number of human deaths
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Other effects
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Avoidability/Recoverability
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Major tsunami
Likelihood; History indicates that it will happen every few decades
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Thousands to several hundreds of thousand
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Major damage to structures in low-lying areas (eg. Fukushima) from the waves and from salt introduced to soils
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Avoidability;
Unavoidable, but many human lives could be saved by an effective early warning
system.
Recoverability;
Fully recoverable with time (a decade or so)
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Disaster
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Number of human deaths
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Other effects
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Avoidability/Recoverability
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Major earthquake
Likelihood; History indicates that it will happen every few years,
with exceptionally bad earthquakes at longer intervals
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Hundreds to tens of thousands
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Major damage to infrastructure: buildings, roads. Little disruption to
non-human species.
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Avoidability; Unavoidable
Recoverability; Fully recoverable in time
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Disaster
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Number of human deaths
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Other effects
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Avoidability/Recoverability
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Coronal mass ejection from the Sun
Likelihood; Inevitable at some time.
Exceptionally violent ones happen every century or so.
The last such was in September 1859.
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Many millions
This type of exceptional 'storm' on the Sun could destroy most of the
transformers in the world's electricity grids; they
would not be able to be repared, they'd have to be replaced, and with no
electricity, there'd be huge problems in building replacement transformers.
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With no electricity there'd be no water pumping, no treatment of sewage;
computers, refrigorators, freezers and factories would stop,
many oil pumps would stop – without oil much of Western civilisation
would grind to a halt.
Little disruption to non-human species.
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Avoidability; Unavoidable.
Replacement transformers could be stock-piled in readiness – but
this is not happening.
Recoverability; Fully recoverable in a suffiency of time
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Disaster
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Number of human deaths
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Other effects
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Avoidability/Recoverability
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Terrorists attacks using suicide bombing
Likelihood; It is happening
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Normally less than a hundred, but up to several thousands is possible (as
happened with the Twin Towers).
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Few. People might try to avoid the more crowded areas.
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Avoidability; If the causes inciting extremists to commit terrorist
acts can be removed then terrorist bombings might be reduced. See
Why do people hate the USA.
Recoverability;
Fully recoverable
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Expert opinion is that so called 'dirty bombs' (conventional bombs
laced with radioactive material) would cause very few deaths.
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Disaster
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Number of human deaths
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Other effects
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Avoidability/Recoverability
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Terrorists obtain and use several nuclear weapons
Likelihood; Who knows? possible
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Several tens of thousands up to several millions.
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Will mainly depend on human behaviour – will people in other cities
panic and move out to the country en-mass?
Will this cause economic collapse, cultural collapse?
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Avoidability; If the causes inciting extremists to commit terrorist
acts can be removed then it might well be avoided. If nations with nuclear
weapons were to greatly reduce their armouries the ability of terrorists to
obtain bombs would be similarly reduced.
Recoverability;
The city or cities attacked will retain radioactive contamination for some
years; otherwise recovery will depend very much on the general reaction to
the attack.
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Disaster
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Number of human deaths
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Other effects
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Avoidability/Recoverability
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Strike by asteroid on major city; assuming the asteroid to be in the
(small) 100m to 1km diameter class
Likelihood; Inevitable over a long enough period, enormously unlikely in
the next few years
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Tens of thousands to several millions
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Total devastation in the immediate area
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Avoidability; It is avoidable by early detection and modifying the
orbit of the asteroid.
Recoverability; The particularly city would be entirely destroyed
and the vicinity extensively damaged, but recovery would eventually be near
complete.
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Disaster
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Number of human deaths
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Other effects
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Avoidability/Recoverability
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Nuclear war; between two major nuclear powers, eg. USA and China
Likelihood; Unlikely
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Tens of millions or even hundreds of millions
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Blast damage would mainly be confined to areas of human occupation. Fallout
and radiation would effect higher animals in much the same way as it effects
humans. There is a possibility of
'nuclear winter' which could result in the extinction of many species.
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Avoidability; Entirely avoidable; nuclear weapons have been available
for sixty years and the only time they were used was by one nuclear power
against a non-nuclear power.
Would any government be stupid enough to
use nuclear weapons against a nation that could retaliate?
Recoverability; Probably recoverable. There is a possibility of
'nuclear winter' which could result in the extinction of many species.
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Disaster
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Number of human deaths
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Other effects
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Avoidability/Recoverability
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Pandemic; bird flu or some other pathogen mutates and becomes human-transmissible, virulent and highly contagious
Likelihood; Quite likely, it happens periodically; we have been lucky
that it has not happened in the last three quarters of a century.
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If the Hong Kong bird flu or some other virus or pathogen mutates to becomes human-to-human transmissible and virulent human deaths could be up to hundreds of millions.
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There may well be no direct effects on other species and minimal effect on
infrastructure.
Panic exoduses from cities might lead to environmental disruptions,
overcrowding, and starvation elsewhere.
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Avoidability; There is probably nothing that can be done to avoid it.
However, its severity could be greatly reduced by various human activities
such as speedy development of vaccines.
Recoverability; Totally recoverable because it will be confined only
to humans.
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COVID-19 2021/10/11; This 'novel coronavirus' may have become the example pandemic that I was considering. To this date the number of cases is 239 million, nearly five million have died. The death rate from COVID-19 seems to be highly variable from one country to another; the death rate at this time varies at least between 1.1% in Australia and 9% in Peru; worldwide it was reported as being 2%.
The pandemic was far from having run its course at the time of writing this.
(These figures were from
Worldometers.)
A new strain of COVID, the Delta variant, appeared in India in December 2020. It is more contagious than the original virus. It is possible that more virulent and deadly variants could yet evolve. As of October 2021 only 4% of Africans are fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
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Disaster
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Number of human deaths
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Other effects
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Avoidability/Recoverability
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Climate change
Likelihood; It has already happened, but the worst effects may be
avoided by concerted efforts on a world-wide scale.
Major damage to humanity and the world's ecosystems will also occur from
ocean acidification,
ocean warming and
sea level rise.
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Tens of millions up to several billion.
Many low-lying
river deltas such as the Mekong, Ganges/Brahma Putra and the Nile
will be inundated by the rising sea levels; these areas are the most
densly populated places in the world. Many fertile and highly populated
areas of the First World will also go under. Global water supplies will
change, rainfalls will decrease greatly in some areas and increase in other
areas.
Increases in the severity of major storms will produce exceptional hail damage, wind damage and floods.
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Thousands of species will become extinct because of habitat loss.
Major changes in global weather patterns and possibly ocean currents will
occur. Runaway greenhouse effects may occur because of positive feedback
effects in such things as release of greenhouse gases from melting
permafrost and methane hydrides on the ocean floor.
Also see below...
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Avoidability; It has already started. The worst effects could be avoided if there was the necessary international political will.
Recoverability; The losses of species and destruction of environments
would be unrecoverable. Changes in weather patterns and ocean currents may
not be reversible, and even if they could be reversed the damage would
already have been done.
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More on the climate change disaster
Displacements of large populations by rising sea level and drought will lead
to wars over territory.
History shows us that when peoples have to move from their own land they will
take land from neighbours who are weaker.
Starvation will be widespread.
Habitat destruction and deforestation due to overcrowding will lead to
even more starvation in later years.
The ocean current called the Gulf Stream makes northern Europe habitable;
it is quite probable that ocean currents including the Gulf Stream will
change if climates change substantially.
Ocean acidification is happening due to the carbon dioxide that human activity
has added to the atmosphere dissolving in sea water to form carbonic acid.
This is already adversely affecting the ability of small sea creatures such
as foraminifera and corrals to produce their calcic skeletons.
I have written at greater length on
climate change from an international
perspective and also from an
Australian perspective elsewhere on
this site.
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