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This section written
2018/02/24
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Almost all of the ways in which BEVs compare unfavourably to ICE-powered vehicles in 2018 will change in future in ways advantageous to BEVs; prices will decline, fast recharging options will become more readily available, ranges have increased and will continue to increase.
It seems unlikely that the future will bring any advantages to ICE vehicles.
Lithium based batteries seem likely to remain non-recyclable because mined lithium will remain cheaper than recycled lithium at least for a number of years.
The electricity available to recharge BEVs will gradually become more sustainable as fossil-fuelled generation is phased out.
The number of BEVs built has increased at the exponential rate of around 70% per year from 2011 to 2017; the figures below are extracted from a graph on
www.ev-volumes.com:
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As mentioned above, BEVs are heavier than ICE vehicles because of the weight of the batteries. According to EVBox average battery weight of an EV is around 450kg but can be as much as 900kg. BEV users demand high ranges from their vehicles but most trips are short.
If BEV batteries were more quickly recharged and if recharging stations were more numerous, the presently demanded long ranges would not be so necessary. (Most BEV journeys are well under 100km yet ranges of 300km plus are often being provided in many BEVs.)
Answers to this problem that may come in time...
- New battery technology producing batteries with higher energy density?
- Quick recharging at more numerous recharging stations?
- Modular batteries that could be taken out for short trips and added when a long trip is planned?
A hypothetical case: A particular EV has 700kg of batteries and a range of 350km (so 2kg of batteries will get it 1km). Let's say that 90% of the use of this car is an 80km commute (40km to work, 40km back) or less for shopping etcetera. So at 2kg of battery needed for each kilometre 160kg of battery is all that is needed for the commuting. If, somehow, the battery was made up of, say, 100kg modules, two modules would be enough for the commute. The other five modules could be left at home 90% of the time and the vehicle would be 500kg lighter for the commuting.
I have no idea how this could be done in practice.
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| Year | Approx. number built
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| 2011 | 50,000
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| 2012 | 120,000
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| 2013 | 210,000
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| 2014 | 320,000
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| 2015 | 550,000
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| 2016 | 780,000
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| 2017 | 1,220,000
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While it is doubtful that this huge rate of growth will continue for very many years (if it continued to 2025 the number being built each year would be eighty million) there can be little doubt that a high rate of growth will continue.
The problems with air pollution, particularly in India and China but in big cities everywhere, will continue to incentivise the change from ICE-vehicles to BEVs.
As BEV technology advances, as designs become more settled and as the numbers of BEVs built increase prices will come down substantially.
Fast-charging stations are becoming more common all the time.
As the integration of BEV batteries with home electricity supply and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services develop the advantage of having a BEV battery available at home will increase.
For more information on vehicle-to-grid ability see
Wikipedia.
This could easily become one of the main economic incentives to own a BEV in the future.
As the need for action to reduce climate changing emissions and emissions causing
ill-health and death becomes more recognised and urgent
government incentives for owning BEVs will increase.
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This section added
2023/01/22
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In early 2023 there were many features that could be incorporated into BEVs that were not yet in place. There should be:
- Standardisation in charging leads, power outlets and vehicle input plugs between all brands of BEVs;
- A widely available ability of coordinating BEV charging and discharging with:
- Household PV systems;
- Household batteries;
- The power grid, depending on buying and selling prices and the degree of need for generation or consumption on the grid;
In summery there should be an availability for all BEV users to make the most of their possibilities in combining the charging or discharging of their BEVs in order to receive the greatest advantages that are available to them now, and will become available to them in future.
What is needed is the full and flexible integration of:
- generation
- from home solar;
- from private BEV batteries;
- from community scale solar and batteries;
- from utility scale solar and wind installations;
- and consumption
- in households;
- in commerce;
- in industry;
- in government services.
This will be to the advantage of all parties involved, including government.
There are huge opportunities in the integration of BEVs and home power, BEVs, the power grid, microgrids, etc.
See Solar Integration for thoughts on integration of solar power with homes, BEVs and the power grid.
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This section added
2023/09/02
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This is a subject on which I have very limited knowledge. I am expressing an opinion based on what little knowledge I have. It is also a field that is very much in flux.
The batteries used in BEVs have a limited life. They are structurally and chemically complex and therefore difficult to fully recycle. I can't imagine this changing greatly in the future. On the other hand hydrogen can be stored in lined steel cylinders that have a long life and can easily be fully recycled. It can also be stored in containers of metal hydrides that should also be easily recycled at the end of their useful lives.
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The hydrogen economy
In 2023, especially in places like South Australia where there is a very high percentage of renewable energy, there is a need for energy intensive industries that can take up the electricity that is in excess to normal demand. The production of hydrogen is one strong option.
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We must, with urgency, phase out ICE powered vehicles because of their climate impacts, air pollution, and their use of a finite resource.
But we must replace them with something that is sustainable, and to be sustainable it must be fully recyclable. As of 2023 it doesn't look like the batteries used in BEVs will be fully recyclable at a reasonable cost any time soon. If future people are to have a world that is not greatly inferior to the one we enjoy we must be careful to not replace one unsustainable technology with another unsustainable technology.
As of 2023 HFCEVs are not viable for private cars, mostly because there are very few hydrogen refuelling stations, although this will gradually change in the future. But hydrogen fuel-cells may well be viable for ships, trains and aircraft very soon, if not right now; these would need far fewer refuelling stations. Shipping would only require one refuelling station at each major deep-sea port, trains only at each terminal station, and aircraft only at major airports. Busses too could easily be run of hydrogen, with a refuelling station at the bus terminal.
While the mass of a hydrogen tank (or, for that matter, a battery) makes up a very significant part of the mass of a car, it would make up a far smaller proportion of the weight of a ship or train.
The recyclability of the fuel-cell power supply of HFCEVs seems to be problematic. Platinum is used as a catalyst in most (all?) fuel cells and is classed as a critical element; it must be recovered of fuel-cell power supplies are to be sustainable. This could be a major hurdle to overcome in the sustainability of fuel-cell electric vehicles.
Useful links:
The following are just a very few of the many articles available on the Internet on this subject.
Shipping
Full clean ahead: can shipping finally steer away from fossil fuels?; The Guardian, 2023/08/07, written by Anna Turns.
Hydrogen: The Key to Decarbonizing the Global Shipping Industry?; Cnter for Strategic and International Studies, 2021/04/13, written by William Alan Reinsch and Will O’Neil
Trains
Next stop, hydrogen-powered trains; BBC, 2020/02/27, written by Allison Hirschlag
Busses
Hydrogen power: where we’ve been and where we’re going; Intelligent Transport, 2021/02/26, written by Ian Warr
Aircraft
Hydrogen-powered planes almost ready for takeoff; ars Technical's, 2023/08/10, written by Dhananjay Khadilkar
Is this the start of an aviation revolution?; BBC, 2020/02/12, written by Diane Selkirk
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This section added
2023/12/04
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On 2023/11/17 The Conversation published an article titled
The world’s 280 million electric bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars written by Muhammad Rizwan Azhar, Lecturer, Edith Cowan University and Waqas Uzair, Research associate, Edith Cowan University.
There seems no point in me paraphrasing the article, instead I'll quote a section of it. Please go to the article itself for more:
"We hop in the car to get groceries or drop kids at school. But while the car is convenient, these short trips add up in terms of emissions, pollution and petrol cost.
Close to half (44%) of all Australian commuter trips are by car – and under 10km. Of Perth’s 4.2 million daily car trips, 2.8 million are for distances of less than 2km.
This is common in wealthier countries. In the United States, a staggering 60% of all car trips cover less than 10km.
So what’s the best solution? You might think switching to an electric vehicle is the natural step. In fact, for short trips, an electric bike or moped might be better for you – and for the planet. That’s because these forms of transport – collectively known as electric micromobility – are cheaper to buy and run.
But it’s more than that – they are actually displacing four times as much demand for oil as all the world’s electric cars at present, due to their staggering uptake in China and other nations where mopeds are a common form of transport."
Azhar and Uzair make the very strong point that electric mopeds, scooters and bicycles are much lighter than electric cars and therefore use far less electricity to power and contain far less embodied energy and use far less resources to build.
They point out that while over 20 million electric vehicles are on the roads, there are also "over 280 million electric mopeds, scooters, motorcycles and three-wheelers on the road last year".
One wonders, though, how many of the small electric vehicles are taking the place of cars, and how many are simply replacing peddle powered bicycles. If they are replacing ICE powered mopeds and motorcycles that is good, but not so good as if they were replacing ICE powered cars.
